How Iran actually lost in Aleppo
Evidence of Iranian victory in Aleppo. But
what is the truth?
Read it in the paper of H. Alavi
December
26, 2016
How Iran
actually lost in Aleppo
By
Heshmat Alavi
Following
a historic period of perseverance, Syrian rebels and their families were forced
to evacuate eastern Aleppo after its liberation back in 2012. An unjust,
intense war was launched upon Aleppo by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and
its proxy forces on the ground: Russia with its indiscriminate air strikes, and
a lame-duck Syrian army of less than 20,000 deployable forces.
After
more than 15 months continuous air raids and a long-lasting inhumane siege,
Syrian rebels and civilians sealed an international agreement to depart Syria’s
once economic and cultural hub.
In
the past few weeks widespread bombing campaigns continued relentlessly on
civilian areas. No Aleppo hospital was spared. The IRGC and its foot-soldiers,
numbering at the tens of thousands, spearheaded the military of Syrian dictator
Bashar Assad in horrific mass executions of innocent people. The United Nations
reported 82 individuals, including women and children, were murdered on the
spot in the streets and in their homes. God knows how many more incidents have
gone unreported.
The
amazing perseverance shown by Aleppo locals for years now in the face of
atrocious airstrikes and artillery shelling is unprecedented to say the least.
Amidst all this, the silence and inaction seen from the West, especially the
United States, will remain forever a source of shame.
Conflict
of Interests
In
the pro-Assad camp there are three decision-makers. First Russia, second Iran,
and third the Syrian regime. The role played by Assad and his military in such
scenes is next to nothing.
The
West and Turkey became frantic for a ceasefire in Aleppo in the early days of
the war due to the negative public opinion resulting from shocking crimes. They
sought to have the rebels and remaining civilians transferred to other Syrian
opposition controlled areas.
On
December 13th, Washington and Moscow reached what can be described a ceasefire
agreement. Intense negotiations between Turkey and Russia were started
afterwards, resulting in an agreement between the Syrian opposition with Russia
and Turkey to evacuate Aleppo. Practically, the parties involved in the talks
were Aleppo representatives and Russia, hosted by Turkey. All necessary
preparations were made to begin evacuating the city from the morning of Wednesday,
December 14th.
However,
Iran disrupted this agreement and the IRGC hindered the evacuation process. It
was crystal clear Russia and Iran were pursuing different objectives and sets
of interests. Iran sought not to have Aleppo evacuated but to exterminate all
Syrian rebels and civilians.
Twenty-four
hours later, pressure from the international community forced the
implementation of the Russia-Syrian rebel agreement on December 15th. On the
morning of that day the first convoy carrying the wounded exited Aleppo, only
to face roadblocks imposed by Iran-backed forces and the Assad military.
Iran
raised certain conditions for the evacuation. Russia later threatened to
airstrike any party hindering the evacuation, an obvious warning to Iran.
Tehran was forced to wind back under Moscow pressure.
As
a result, the last phase of this war and the method chosen to evacuate Aleppo
was a defeat for Iran and a victory for the Syrian opposition. Especially since
the conflict of interest between Iran/Assad and Russia became crystal clear.
Politically speaking, Iran has become a secondary party in Syria.
“For
Putin, a political settlement now makes sense. Staying involved in an ongoing
insurgency does not. But for that, he needs the opposition -- which is
fractured -- to accept a political outcome, and there is little prospect of
that so long as Assad remains in power,” as explained by Dennis Ross, who
served as the Director of Policy Planning in the State Department under
President George H. W. Bush, the special Middle East coordinator under
President Bill Clinton, and was a special adviser for the Persian Gulf and
Southwest Asia (which includes Iran) to the former Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton.
Is
this the end?
The
turn of events does not spell the end of the Syrian opposition. The opposition
controls large swathes of Syria, with areas over ten times larger than Aleppo
and millions of residents. Idlib Province has at a three million strong
population; the western coast of the Euphrates in the Turkish border, recently
liberated by the Free Syrian Army from Daesh (ISIS/ISIL); large portions of
Deraa Province neighboring Jordan; a strategically important section in the
north in Latakia Province on the Turkish border; large portions of areas in the
Damascus vicinity and large portions in the Aleppo vicinity.
In
contrast to Western mainstream media reporting, the Syrian opposition enjoys
the capability to rise once again.
Despite
all its differences, a comparison made to the Iran-Iraq War may help. In 1986,
Iran made significant advances taking control over the Faw peninsula in
southern Iraq. Western media and think-tanks all forecasted further advances by
Iran and a defeat for Iraq. In 1988 Iran was forced into a U.N.-brokered
ceasefire agreement.
Deep
divisions between the Syrian nation and the Assad regime have reached the point
of no return. Nearly 500,000 have been killed and more than half of the Syrian
population displaced. The Syrian nation will never accept the continuation of
this regime. Despite sporadic military advances, Assad has no place in Syria’s
future.
Where
Iran stands in Syria
Iran
will not be the final victor in Syria.
First
-- For Iran, it is vital to maintain Assad in power. His fall will mark the end
of Iran’s crusades in Syria. Even if the Syrian opposition becomes weaker, the
overall crisis will continue while Assad remains in power. Assad is no longer
acceptable in the international stage with an international consensus over his
resort to war crimes and crimes against humanity.
Second
-- While Iran is financing and providing the ground forces, in this war, it no
longer enjoys the first and final word. Russia calls the shots now with stark
differences in interest, as seen in Aleppo.
Trump’s
America
U.S.
President Barack Obama’s weak foreign policy, especially the failed engagement
with Iran, prolonged the Syrian crisis, allowed Tehran to take advantage,
Russia to take the helm and America be sidelined.
Where
will developments lead with Donald Trump in the White House? What will be the
new U.S. foreign policy vis-à-vis Syria, Iran and the Middle East? How can we
define Washington’s relationship with Moscow, and what practical measures will
Trump take against Daesh (ISIS/ISIL)? Time will tell.
Good
relations between the U.S. and Russia will at least not have a negative impact
on the region, and this is good news for the Syrian opposition. Russia has
weighable interests in Syria. However, what will Trump do with Iran?
Considering Trump’s harsh tone on Iran to this day, far more positive outcomes
can be forecasted for the Syrian opposition.
Second,
Trump and secretary of state nominee Rex Tillerson have the potential of
eventually convincing Russia to provide concessions. This is not in Iran’s interests,
as Tehran remembers Russia ditching Libyan the dictator Muammar Qaddafi.
Lesson
learned in Syria
For
16 years America has failed to adopt a correct policy in the Middle East
despite having huge opportunities to make significant changes. The 2003 war
literally gift-wrapped Iraq to Iran, parallel to the highly flawed mentality of
preferring Shiite fundamentalism to Sunni fundamentalism. This allowed Iran
take full advantage of such failures and resulting voids.
Aleppo
will be a short-lived success story for Iran. The tides are changing across the
globe and Iran will no longer enjoy opportunities from West rapprochement.
Understanding this very well, this is exactly why Tehran has resorted to such
atrocities and sought to massacre all in Aleppo.
In contrast
to how the U.S. handed Iraq in a silver plate to Iran, Russia never entered the
Syria mayhem to hand it over to Iran. The roots of Aleppo remain in the hearts
of all Syrians. As world powers, especially the U.S. and Russia review their
future objectives, Iran will be the first and ultimate party to suffer.
Following
a historic period of perseverance, Syrian rebels and their families were forced
to evacuate eastern Aleppo after its liberation back in 2012. An unjust,
intense war was launched upon Aleppo by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and
its proxy forces on the ground: Russia with its indiscriminate air strikes, and
a lame-duck Syrian army of less than 20,000 deployable forces.
After
more than 15 months continuous air raids and a long-lasting inhumane siege,
Syrian rebels and civilians sealed an international agreement to depart Syria’s
once economic and cultural hub.
In
the past few weeks widespread bombing campaigns continued relentlessly on
civilian areas. No Aleppo hospital was spared. The IRGC and its foot-soldiers,
numbering at the tens of thousands, spearheaded the military of Syrian dictator
Bashar Assad in horrific mass executions of innocent people. The United Nations
reported 82 individuals, including women and children, were murdered on the
spot in the streets and in their homes. God knows how many more incidents have
gone unreported.
Read
more:
http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2016/12/how_iran_actually_lost_in_aleppo.html#ixzz4U1PcbgDj
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us: @AmericanThinker on Twitter | AmericanThinker on Facebook
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